Causal Discovery among Wind-related Variables in a Wind Farm under Extreme Wind Speed Scenarios: Comparison of Results using Granger Causality and Interactive k-Means Clustering

Causal Discovery among Wind-related Variables in a Wind Farm under Extreme Wind Speed Scenarios: Comparison of Results using Granger Causality and Interactive k-Means Clustering

Abstract

Using the ERA5 meteorological reanalysis data from 2000 to 2020, we investigate temporal effects of ten wind related processes in time intervals of extreme wind speed values, extracted and corrected towards wind turbine locations for a wind farm in Andau, Austria. We approach the problem by two ways, by the Granger causal inference, namely by the heterogeneous Graphical Granger model (HMML) and by clustering, namely by the interactive k-means clustering (IKM). We investigate six scenarios based on the hydrological half-year, a moderate wind speed and time intervals of low or high extreme wind speed in the farm. In case of HMML, we discover causal variables and their values for each scenario. Regarding the method IKM, it is used for three clusters (clusters for a moderate wind speed and for a low and high extreme wind speed) to find coefficient representations of each interacting variable with respect to the wind speed in each of the six scenarios. We compare the results of both methods in terms of the causal variables and of the variables of the highest coefficients of representation and evaluate the interpretability of the discovered causal connections with the expert meteorological knowledge.

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Authors
  • Hlavackova-Schindler, Katerina
  • Hoxhallari, Kejsi
  • Caumel Morales, Luis
  • Schicker, Irene
  • Plant, Claudia
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Shortfacts
Category
Paper in Conference Proceedings or in Workshop Proceedings (Poster)
Event Title
EGU 2024 - Many shades of causality analysis in Earth Sciences: Methods, challenges and applications
Divisions
Data Mining and Machine Learning
Event Location
Vienna, Austria
Event Type
Workshop
Event Dates
May, 18, 2024
Date
18 April 2024
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