Ensuring reliability, availability, and security in modern software systems hinges on early fault detection, yet predicting which parts of a codebase are most at risk remains a significant challenge. In this paper, we analyze 2.4 million commits drawn from 33 heterogeneous open-source projects, spanning healthcare, security tools, data processing, and more. By examining each repository per file and per commit, we derive process metrics (e.g., churn, file age, revision frequency) alongside size metrics and entropy-based indicators of how scattered changes are over time. We train and tune a gradient boosting model to classify bug-prone commits under realistic class-imbalance conditions, achieving robust predictive performance across diverse repositories. Moreover, a comprehensive feature-importance analysis shows that files with long lifespans (high age), frequent edits (revision count), and widely scattered changes (entropy metrics) are especially vulnerable to defects. These insights can help practitioners and researchers prioritize testing and tailor maintenance strategies, ultimately strengthening software dependability.

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